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At the recent Beneficial AGI Summit in Panama, computer scientist Ben Goertzel, a prominent figure in the theoretical field, suggested that artificial general intelligence (AGI) may arrive sooner than anticipated.
During his closing remarks, Goertzel predicted that while human-level or superhuman AI may not be achieved until 2029 or 2030, it could happen as early as 2027.
Following this milestone, he proposed that AGI could rapidly evolve into artificial superintelligence (ASI), possessing all the collective knowledge of human civilization.
Speaking to the conference audience, Goertzel acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding the development of AGI, stating, “No one has created human-level artificial general intelligence yet; nobody has a solid knowledge of when we’re going to get there.”
However, he believed reaching human-level AGI within three to eight years was plausible.
Goertzel’s prediction aligns with similar forecasts made by other experts in the field. Google DeepMind co-founder Shane Legg has suggested a 50/50 chance of AGI being invented by 2028. Geoffrey Hinton, regarded as an “AI godfather,” estimates AGI achievable within five to 20 years.
Known for creating the humanoid robot Sophia, Goertzel has long speculated about the timing of the “singularity,” the point at which AI matches and surpasses human intelligence.
Advancements in large language models (LLMs), such as ChatGPT by OpenAI, have brought the possibility of AGI closer, although Goertzel emphasizes that LLMs alone are not the path to AGI.
He envisions that once AGI reaches human-level intelligence, it could rapidly enhance its capabilities, leading to an “intelligence explosion.”
However, Goertzel’s predictions come with caveats. He acknowledges that even a superhuman AI would not possess a “mind” akin to humans and highlights the need to consider the societal implications and environmental impacts of AI development.
Despite these considerations, Goertzel’s theory remains compelling, given the rapid progress of AI in recent years.
