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Generative AI has dominated the headlines throughout the year, with numerous companies investing substantially, and a watershed moment in this trajectory occurred with the launch of ChatGPT by OpenAI in November 2022.
OpenAI’s GPT set the stage for significant advancements in AI across various sectors. However, despite the widespread enthusiasm for GPT and generative AI, Microsoft founder Bill Gates has voiced reservations, suggesting that this technology may have reached a plateau.
ChatGPT has plateaued, believes Gates.
In an interview with the German business newspaper Handelsblatt, the 67-year-old tech luminary, discussed his concerns about the trajectory of generative AI. He acknowledged that there are compelling reasons to believe that the current state of GPT technology has hit a plateau. Gates, however, admitted that he could be mistaken in his assessment.
His perspective diverges from OpenAI’s, as he sees limitations in the development of GPT-5, contrary to the optimism of OpenAI.
Gates characterized the leap from GPT-2 to GPT-4 as “incredible” in terms of progress. He also offered predictions about the near future, suggesting that AI software’s accuracy will substantially improve in the next two to five years while costs decrease.
He believes this will pave the way for the creation of novel and dependable applications. Nevertheless, Gates anticipates an initial stagnation in development, particularly with GPT-4, where he sees a technological limit that GPT-5 may not surpass.
AI is set to get more reliable, not more feature-rich than it is today
However, Gates remains optimistic about the short-term potential of AI. He envisions that ongoing research will render AI more reliable and understandable. Additionally, he foresees that developing nations will significantly benefit from AI, offering the example of health advice delivered via smartphones.
Addressing the cost and reliability of AI, Gates acknowledged that some AI chips from Nvidia can be exorbitantly priced at around $30,000 per unit, boasting substantial computing power and energy consumption. He remarked on the expense of training large language models but noted that usage costs have reduced over time.
Gates also expressed his belief in AI’s potential to revolutionize healthcare. He highlighted AI’s capacity to expedite drug and vaccine development, notwithstanding existing concerns about reliability.
No one knows how AGI will pan out.
Furthermore, Gates delved into the concept of the AI “black box” and the importance of unraveling how AI encrypts information. He mentioned ongoing efforts by many individuals and organizations to demystify this aspect of AI.
On the topic of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), Gates asserted that the arrival of AGI remains uncertain and could represent a profound development for humanity.
Finally, Gates shared his insights into how AI can play a pivotal role in mitigating climate change. He emphasized that climate models continually improve and touted the potential for new crop varieties that can thrive in high-temperature conditions.
Gates revealed his investments in nearly 100 companies dedicated to enhancing the power grid with AI technology, underlining his commitment to addressing pressing global challenges.
